What is risk and how do we manage it?
Risks & Hazards In Essex
Under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, Essex Resilience Forum (ERF) partners are required to assess the risks in their area. ERF partner agencies achieve this by working together to develop the 'Essex Community Risk Register'.
The Essex Community Risk Register (CRR) is informed by national guidance and developed locally with partner agencies and subject matter experts. The final register is endorsed by the senior representatives of all ERF partner agencies. A copy can be found in the Community isk Register Secrion of this website.
The register has two key purposes:
- To ensure that partners have a common perception and understanding of risks. The register ensures that all partners fully understand the likelihood of risks occurring and the impacts that will happen if they do.
- To assure the people of Essex that risks are being researched and multi-agency plans are put in place to deal with them. The register also advises the public what they can do to protect themselves.
To guide Local Resilience Forums, the UK Government profides a document called the National Security Risk Assessment that helps focus LRF partners to develop plans around the most preaaing risks to Essex.
What is the definition of Risk
Risk is typically defined as the combination of the likelihood of a specific event occurring and the impact or consequences that event would have if it were to occur. In simpler terms, risk reflects the potential for a negative outcome and how severe that outcome could be.
Key Components of Risk:
- Likelihood (Probability): How likely it is that an event or hazard will occur.
- Impact (Consequence): The extent of damage, harm, or disruption that would result if the event were to happen.
In risk management, the goal is to assess and mitigate these factors to reduce the potential for harm, whether in a personal, organizational, or societal context.
Example in Emergency Management:
Natural disaster risk: The risk of a flood can be described as the likelihood of heavy rainfall causing rivers to overflow, combined with the potential impact, such as damage to homes, infrastructure, and lives.
In the context of emergency planning, risk is assessed to prioritize resources, develop response strategies, and reduce vulnerabilities.
Types of risk
The register places risks into four categories. These categories are determined by assessing the 'likelihood' of a risk occurring and the various 'impacts' that the risk would cause. The categories are below:
- Very high risk - These are classed as primary or critical risks requiring immediate attention. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are such that they must be treated as a high priority. This may mean that strategies should be developed to reduce or eliminate risks, but also that mitigation in the form of at least (multi-agency) generic planning, exercising and training should be put in place and the risk monitored on a regular frequency. Consideration should be given to planning being specific to the risk rather than generic.
- High risk - These risks are classed as significant. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are sufficiently serious to warrant appropriate consideration after those risks classed as ‘very high’. Consideration should be given to the development of strategies to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also mitigation in the form of at least (multi-agency) generic planning, exercising and training should be put in place and the risk monitored on a regular frequency.
- Medium risk - These risks are less significant, but may cause upset and inconvenience in the short term. These risks should be monitored to ensure that they are being appropriately managed and consideration given to their being managed under generic emergency planning arrangements.
- Low risk - These risks are both unlikely to occur and not significant in their impact. They should be managed using normal or generic planning arrangements and require minimal monitoring and control unless subsequent risk assessments show a substantial change, prompting a move to another risk category.
How is Risk calculated and managed?
In emergency planning, risk is typically calculated by assessing two main factors: likelihood and impact (or consequence). This helps determine the overall level of risk associated with different hazards or threats. The process involves identifying potential hazards, evaluating how likely they are to occur, and estimating the damage they could cause. This forms the basis for prioritizing risks and planning appropriate responses.
6 Key Steps in Risk Calculation:
STEP 1 - Identify Hazards and Threats:
- Identify potential risks that could affect the community, organisation, or infrastructure (e.g., natural disasters, technological failures, terrorist attacks, pandemics).
STEP 2 - Assess Likelihood (Probability):
- The likelihood of a risk occurring is based on historical evidence, subject matter expert opinion and local expertise. The ERF constantly carries out a process called 'Horizon Scanning', in which we monitor various channels to forecast what may occur in the short, medium and long term (e.g. Weather forecasting). Determine how likely it is that each identified risk will occur. Likelihood is typically measured on a scale ranging from "unlikely" to "highly likely" or in terms of frequency (e.g., once in 10 years).
- Factors considered include historical data, environmental conditions, trends, and expert opinion.
STEP 3 - Assess Impact (Consequence):
- The impact is again based on subject matter expert opinion, historical evidence and local expertise. The impact is measured across four areas; economic impacts, health impacts, societal impacts and infrastructure impacts, Evaluate the potential impact if the risk materializes. This could include effects on people, infrastructure, the economy, the environment, and essential services.
- Impact is often categorized into levels such as "minor," "moderate," "major," or "catastrophic."
STEP 4 - Calculate Risk Score:
- Risk = Likelihood × Impact
The risk score is calculated by multiplying the likelihood of the event occurring by the severity of its impact. This may be done using a qualitative scale (e.g., low, medium, high) or quantitatively (e.g., assigning numerical values to likelihood and impact and multiplying them to get a risk score).
For example, using a scale of 1 to 5:
- Likelihood: 4 (likely to occur)
- Impact: 5 (catastrophic consequences)
- Risk Score = 4 × 5 = 20 (High Risk)
STEP 5 - Prioritise Risks:
After calculating the risk scores, risks are prioritized based on their severity. High-risk events with both high likelihood and high impact are given the most attention in emergency planning.
Planners may use a risk matrix to plot risks based on their likelihood and impact, which helps in visualizing and prioritizing.
STEP 6 - Plan and Mitigate:
Use the risk assessment to develop emergency plans and mitigation strategies, focusing on reducing the likelihood of high-probability risks and minimizing the impact of high-consequence risks.
Example of a Risk Matrix Table:
This type of matrix helps organizations visually assess and prioritize risks based on their calculated values.
In Summary:
In emergency planning, risk is calculated by evaluating the likelihood and impact of potential hazards, assigning values to each, and multiplying them to determine a risk score. This score helps prioritize risks, guiding the focus of emergency preparedness, resource allocation, and mitigation strategies.
